Whatever amount is to be spent now, prospecting for oil in the north, should, in my opinion, be considered a bargain.
I Just like football does to Nigerians in general, President Buhari’s last week directive to the NNPC to commence oil exploration activities in the Benue Trough, in addition to his earlier order to the corporation to re-ignite its search for oil in both the Chad Basin and the Kolmani River area following the reported discovery of hydrocarbons by Shell in the area, has since concentrated the attention of critical segments of the Nigerian society. The directive has seen literally all the politico-cultural divides in the country as well as relevant professionals, weigh in, for or against.
Not surprisingly, the 19 northern state governors have been sufficiently optimistic about oil production in the region that they have since hired a British firm through the auspices of their regional development company, the Northern Nigeria Development Company, to embark on oil exploration activities.
Quite understandably too, interventions have been both politically and economically driven. To each of the Ijaw Youth Monitoring and development Group and the Urhobo Monitoring Development Group, the directive is ill-motivated, driven, as Kinsley Oberuruaria of the latter organisation said, by a strong desire ‘to annihilate the people of the region’ While Eric Omaleof the Ijaw Youth Council described it as a good initiative, he had no doubts whatever that the timing is wrong because of the prevailing situation in the oil industry worldwide, makes it ill advised. For that reason, according to him, the venture is economically unwise.
While Muhammad Ibrahim, the National Publicity Secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum, claimed complete ignorance of the directive, the Afenifere, whose two chieftains differed in their reactions, was more forthcoming. For Chief Seinde Arogbofa, Secretary-General of the highly regarded Pan-Yoruba Socio-cultural organisation, it is a move in the right direction as it is in accord with restructuring which the group has canvassed, like forever. Said he: “There is nothing wrong if they find oil in the north. That is why we are calling for restructuring.
If that is Buhari’s own restructuring agenda, it is okay.” But not for the organisation’s usually combative spokesperson, Yinka Odumakin, who sees it as a waste. Why? Because, 58 years ago this year, a colonial Secretary of state divined that as a result of the north’s “ fears and dislike for the more educated southerners, if they were not economically bound to the federation, they would be glad to be quit of it.” This, he concluded: “may explain the desperate search for oil in the north at a time oil is becoming worthless.”
Much more than the political commentary, I am, however, more enthused by the more nuanced interventions by the oil, financial and economic professionals who weighed in and spoke to the issues involved. For Dolapo Oni, Head of Energy Research, Ecobank Capital, the move must have been informed by the need to reduce the reliance on the Niger Delta with a view to reducing the country’s vulnerability to attacks in the region. Good as it is, the ideal model, he says, should have been a concession, emphasising that NNPC could gather data and allow companies to do their own search. But, he continued, it may not be the best of times if we are dedicating the NNPC’s scarce resources to going beyond the 2D and 3D.”
Abdullahi Bukar of Uquo Gas Field Development described the renewed efforts towards exploring for oil in the Benue Trough and Chad Basin as a very good development, hoping that ”a well-thought-out policy will be put in place because anything that will increase Nigeria’s oil and gas reserves is very welcome.” To Johnson Chukwu, CEO, Cowry Asset Management Limited, “the effort to diversify the nation’s oil and gas production is a good move, depending on the level of resources being committed to it.”
And as is usual on the ekitipanupo web portal, the subject generated considerable interest, attracting as at the time of writing this, not less than 25 posts. One of them, by a university lecturer, was targeted at the objections from those who spoke for the Niger-Delta region. According to Dr Eniola, the Ijaw Youth Council that could not call their rampaging youths to order lacks the moral right to talk about how to diversify an economy they are trying everything to cripple.
If the monies realised from cocoa and groundnut had not gone towards building the infrastructure for oil exploration in the Niger Delta, where will Nigeria be today? Continuing, he admonished the Ijaw Youth Council to busy itself with unravelling why the six years of Ijaw presidency, with the billions of dollars in appropriations through duplicated ministries and intervention agencies, have not impacted on the ordinary Ijaw man nor on the entire Niger –Delta area. What he believes should now concentrate the mind of the average Ijaw person is the decimation of their area by Niger Delta sons and daughters, even elders, who collected huge amounts of money in the name of Niger Delta development but simply refused to invest in their homeland.
If that was political commentary, not so Goke Omidiran, a geologist who commented as follows: “This is one development agenda that may have economic benefits for the nation. I have been somewhat involved in my time in oil and gas exploration in Nigeria, including the Chad Basin. Let me say first, of all, that this directive is within the president’s powers and may be applauded if those who will implement it would use their best business judgment to determine what steps to take and how far to go to achieve the goal. The advantage of finding oil is enormous when we think of what it promises – especially, its political implications on one hand and its economic benefits on the other.” He would like to suggest the inclusion of the following processes:
1) NNPC should take the road of opening bids for oil prospecting licences (OPL) from interested and capable parties, both local and international,
2) NNPC should provide the exploration companies with the enabling environment including tax holidays and hefty rebates in area of customs and exercise and other relevant expenses.
3) Instead of basing exploration activities in the subject areas on the same mindset as the Akata-Agbada Formation sequencing prevalent in the Niger Delta basin, new models should be developed to determine the oil and gas trapping mechanism rather than rely on the Niger Delta model.
4) Finally, NNPC and the federal government must know when to pull the plug on the effort, should it end up showing no prospects.
In concluding, I would like to say that I see the directive as a win-win situation. I believe that any attempt directed at increasing our oil resources is worth the while since we are not obliged to sell the end product only as crude which would involve so much money building a lengthy pipeline infrastructure from the north to the sea ports located in the south.
It can therefore jump start our manufacture of the many byproducts as NNPC did when I was personally buying polypropylene from them with Ms Nzeribe as the manager in charge. Geo-politically, I strongly believe that discovering oil in commercial quantities in the north will create for the country, a ‘balance of terror’, as a greater part of the agitations/criminalities in the Niger-Delta area are fuelled solely by the availability of oil in the region. It is the reason, for instance, why Nigeria no longer has as much as a third of the electricity generating capacity it had at the beginning of the present administration.
Those worried about the huge funding exploration in the north would involve should equally think of the huge resources that would be required to resuscitate the oil facilities bombed out of existence by those avenging political defeat in addition to the colossal amount of money that will go into the Ogoni land clean up, for instance. It should also be of some moment that in the case of everybody going his/her different ways, which we can only pray God forbid, a landlocked north, with no oil source of its own, can be trusted to fight with everything until all oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta becomes history. Whoever has seen what has become of Southern Sudan would never wish that for our dear country. Whatever amount is to be spent now, prospecting for oil in the north, should, in my opinion, be considered a bargain.
However, seized, as we all are, of NNPC’S historic, endemic corruption and profligacy, the president must ensure that more than an eagle eye is trained on the expenses on this huge and open-ended national assignment.
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